On Thursday, 18 June, the people of just one parliamentary constituency may shape the future for all Britons.
To provide some context for this extraordinary occasion, Josh Simons recently resigned as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Makerfield. This triggered Thursday’s by-election in Manchester in the North West of England.
Why this by-election is taking place right now
Simons did this to enable Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to contest a seat in Parliament and hopefully win it. If Burnham is successful later this week, then he will be able to stand for the leadership of the Labour Party. Labour won a landslide victory in 2024 and were swept into government. However, since then, we have witnessed extremely poor electoral performances from Labour in recent UK elections. This is in addition to plummeting popularity.
There is now an incredibly heavy appetite to replace the historically unpopular Prime Minister Keir Starmer with somebody else entirely. It is perfectly understandable and makes perfect sense as to why this is currently the case. Andy Burnham is now the only senior politician in the UK who has a positive favourability rating with the British public (net +4). This contrasts sharply with the record low approval rating (net -46) that the current PM is now receiving from the electorate.
As a result, it’s definitely fair to suggest that Labour would have a significantly greater chance of beating Reform UK in a future general election. But that’s only if it were led by Burnham, rather than if Starmer were still in charge. The latest opinion polls clearly suggest that Reform would be the largest party in the House of Commons if a UK election took place tomorrow.
Contrasting levels of personal popularity hugely impact electoral performance
That trend might be reversed, though, if Burnham is elected and starts governing the country. That same political favourability YouGov survey alludes to very varying levels of personal popularity from one public figure to another. This is because Reform UK leader Nigel Farage does slightly better than Starmer with a net -37 public approval rating.
However, he is still held in considerably lower regard than Andy Burnham is. This may result in vastly separate personal brands being seen on full display. That could make a huge difference between a Labour majority and a Reform majority in 2029. Benefitting from such a strong personality vote probably explains why Burnham is on course to win this by-election in Makerfield.
The latest poll gives Burnham a ten-point lead over Reform’s candidate, Robert Kenyon. After Labour came third in the Gorton and Denton by-election just a few months ago, it really speaks volumes about how impactful the allocation of certain individual candidates can be, regarding both their strengths and their weaknesses.
Tactical voting on the left combines with split voting on the right
The relationship between tactical voting and vote-splitting is also causing Labour’s unexpectedly strong performance in Makerfield. Some by-election polls have given Rupert Lowe’s hard-right Restore Britain party a 10 per cent vote share. In stark contrast to this, the Liberal Democratic and Green party vote shares have totally collapsed to almost nothing at all.
Both of these minor left-wing parties were urged to stand aside for Labour, and neither one of them did so. Despite this, they still don’t seem to have done any harm to Burnham’s chances of returning to Parliament by fielding candidates anyway. It is clear, then, that progressive voters are so determined to vote tactically for Burnham and put aside their frustrations with Labour, in their attempt to do whatever it takes to defeat a candidate who holds particularly distasteful attitudes and beliefs.
Toxic and inflammatory behaviour severely damages Reform candidate
Robert Kenyon was confirmed as Reform UK’s by-election candidate in Makerfield. However, since then, comments allegedly made by him online and on social media have been very heavily criticised. This includes one that involved television host and media personality Carol Vorderman. A social media user directed a crude sexual remark at Vorderman in December 2021. After this, Kenyon replied, saying that the man was “only saying what we’re all thinking.”
After the comments emerged, Vorderman described him as a “little coward”. She argued that his posts displayed a “pattern of online abuse, trying to belittle women.” She has written a letter to 6,000 women in the constituency, drawing attention to his alleged comments. This was craftily used as a golden opportunity to tell them that they had the power to “decide if Rob Kenyon is the person you want to represent you.”
New polling, revealed by the Manchester Evening News on Saturday evening, suggests that the controversy has damaged his campaign. Because of all this, it seems as if Labour might actually comfortably win a key by-election. This is very surprising, considering that we are in the midst of a time of deep unpopularity and of deep anti-incumbent sentiment amongst people all over the world.
Is it luck or personal strength that’s driving Andy Burnham’s success?
Andy Burnham’s chances of becoming our next prime minister appear to be growing by the day. Does he really have such a strong personal reputation that enables him to conquer every single challenge that he faces? Or is the potential future Labour leader merely benefiting from a largely splintered right-wing vote and a main opponent embroiled in scandal? Is this likely victory being driven more by his personal talents, or just by having some much-needed luck on his side?
It’s very hard to know, but one thing absolutely is for certain. We are undoubtedly witnessing one of the most important by-elections in all of Britain’s political history.
Featured image credit: Scottish Government via Wikimedia
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