Reform UK has reached the highest Scottish vote share ever; a new poll conducted by Survation shows. The poll on Scottish voter intentions was undertaken on behalf of public relations agency Quantum Communications.
The Survation poll finds that if the next Holyrood election happened tomorrow, Reform UK would come third place in voter intentions. The populist party would win 17 per cent of the constituency vote. Voting intentions for the Conservatives in constituency polling were five per cent less.
For regional vote shares, Reform UK would have 16 per cent, three per cent more than that of the Conservatives.
Based on a Holyrood poll from January there has been a four per cent increase in Reform UK’s vote share in Scotland.
Reform is Attracting four in 10 Conservatives
Despite Reform UK’s rocky electoral beginnings as The Brexit Party, in Scotland the party gained +6.5 per cent of the vote share in the 2024 general election. The Scottish Conservatives had a share change of -12.4 per cent.
Now, four in every 10 of those who voted for the Scottish Conservatives in the 2021 Holyrood election would now back Reform UK.
The party won seven per cent of the votes with Scottish voters at the general election. This result suggests more electoral success could be on the horizon in 2026, coming at the expense of the Conservatives.
The newly elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Russell Findlay, has said the party is in trouble as Reform gains prominence in Scotland. This concern was raised after Renfrewshire Council’s Alec Leishman defected to Reform.
“What has been shown in recent by-elections, and indeed the previous general election, is any vote in Scotland for Reform is only going to benefit the SNP,” Findlay outlined.
Reform is also enjoying support from other major parties – 10 per cent from the SNP, 12 per cent from Labour and eight per cent from the Liberal Democrats.
The Success of Populism
Just before the general election of last summer, Scottish voters were focusing on practical issues. According to Economics’ Observatory, these issues were devolution, the economy and cost-of-living.
Farage has seemingly capitalised on these broadly felt concerns. Recently he lambasted Chancellor Rachel Reeves over her economic plan for the UK, stating: “Shouldn’t we tell people that actually they are getting poorer?”
Farage’s partial focus on relevant economic problems has likely added a level of credence to Reform’s image and allowed them to find favour with Scottish voters in turn.
As his presence in UK politics grows, we may see a stronger hold on Scotland in the future.
Feature Image: Wikimedia Commons
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