It’s easy to forget just how recent certain political ideas are and how, as quickly as they were granted, they can also be taken away.
Holyrood was created just under 30 years ago and a significant portion of its powers came just 10 years ago, after the independence referendum.
Since then, the system has been seen as a mainstay and the SNP, who’ve mostly been in charge since devolution, have largely run for the hills in agitating for independence.
Yet the Scottish government, often concerned with growing its powers, has largely neglected the very real and increasing threats to what power it does possess.
That attack is beginning to come from all sides and suggests that the future of the Scottish government as its own distinct entity is uncertain.
The Right-Wing Threat
The Scottish parliament, since it was created, has been dominated by left-wing parties. As such, it’s become deeply unpopular with many on the right.
Just yesterday, a senior advisor of Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch reported that her government would review the Scotland Act and consider removing devolved powers.
The far-right party Restore Britain, who recently claimed the second-highest party membership in Scotland, openly support the abolition of devolution while Reform UK have yet to take an official position.
Such threats would’ve been unthinkable just a few years ago, but it’s clear that the centralisation of the UK is becoming increasingly popular, both amongst Scottish unionists who feel unrepresented and the English right-wing.
Devolution-bashing has become politically rewarding, and we can only expect the threats from the right to abolish or rein in the Scottish government to continue, just a decade after the Conservatives gave Scotland its additional powers.
Burnham’s Devolution
It may seem surprising that Prime Minister Andy Burnham, a man who’s talked about nothing but devolution during his rise to power, represents one of the biggest threats to the system.
But Andy Burnham’s vision of devolution, coming from a background as a mayor, has always been about giving local councils and cities power, rather than the devolved governments.
Burnham’s proposals are at odds with the current system because it would mean Scottish councils would be competing with Holyrood for power. The Scottish Government have made their opposition to the proposals clear, even going as far as enacting their own local government reforms that look to merge a number of local councils and centralise power.
We’re still yet to hear any details of what this policy would look like and the radical plans still face heavy opposition, but when even a supposedly friendly government is threatening to upend the system, devolution appears under even greater threat.
Total Independence
Despite being in Scottish government for the better part of twenty years, the SNP have never been content with the arrangement and are in absolutely no mood to defend it.
The party has been heavily emboldened by the recent Cardiff conference and First Minister John Swinney recently claimed that Andy Burnham would be “the last Prime Minister of the UK.” Plans have already begun for the next independence referendum and the SNP are using these attacks to make their case that Scotland’s sovereignty is only safe if it fully breaks away.
Westminster remains firmly opposed to independence and their increasing scrutiny of devolution only seems to suggest they’ll be even less interested in what Holyrood has to say about the future of Scotland.
The SNP, who’ve consistently tried to work for independence within the framework of devolution, may also be forced to abandon it, particularly as their continued attempts to use Scottish elections for referendum mandates fail.
Could Devolution be Abolished?
Devolution was established in 1997 via a referendum and the 2016 Scotland Act requires a similar vote to abolish it.
Though polls show that ending devolution is surprisingly popular, with around 10 percent of Scots supporting it, it is nowhere near enough to win a referendum, and the idea of abolishing the Scottish government as a whole remains largely fringe.
The key problem is that the status of the Scottish government is becoming more and more contested when it was previously unquestionable. As increasingly radical ideas are taking hold in Westminster, Holyrood’s power is being eyed up by a number of political factions.
As the vultures circle, more and more will become unhappy with the status quo, as it now seems no party in Scotland is at all content with the current state of devolved government.
So, whether it’s the SNP seeking full independence, Labour giving power to councils or Conservatives taking powers back to Westminster, it seems the great controversy of the next few years will be the future of how Scotland is governed.
For now, though, we can only really wait to see as this previously unthinkable conversation continues to evolve.
Featured Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Edinburgh_Scottish_Parliament-20110902-RM-155721.jpg)
2nd year History and Journalism Student
Politics Editor and Head of Podcasting
Also writes on Substack @jamesmcintyre609599
