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Although I have lived through a few general elections, this year was the least surprising. As far back as 2022, I can recall predicting a Labour victory in the next general election. The only question, in my view, was how large the majority would be.
After more than a decade in government, the Conservatives had exhausted their momentum. Yes, they reinvented themselves after austerity, Brexit, and failed prime ministers. But that is not to say these factors didn’t leave a mark on their reputation, which is undeniably negative.
Failed leadership undoubtedly tainted the government. Five Prime Ministers over six years (2016-2022) is about as unprecedented as the times they governed. The varying levels of scandals, corruption, incompetence and weakness displayed by the Conservative Prime Ministers are too much to recall.
This turbulent history set the stage for a Labour triumph in 2024, rendering the election a mere formality. Nevertheless, it provided rich material for political analysis.
2: Labour
Despite an overwhelming majority (411), the Labour campaign had been exceptionally boring. Trying to secure floating voters, Labour seldom peeped out a tough stance on vital campaign issues. Their campaign style was evasive, with questions being answered in the typical indirect style we have grown accustomed to with politicians.
This was taking a leaf out of New Labour book, by tip-toeing between centre-left and centre-right, and steering clear of the dirty word in politics, the word Labour was founded on: socialist.
One could almost describe the Stamrer government as being ‘New, New Labour.’
Despite the doubts about Starmer’s ability to lead Labour through an election (a main criticism being his boringness) the scandals over Reyner’s tax, and Abbot’s ability to run for MP, they won. Realistically, their victory was a result of the ABC effect (anyone but Conservative) – The floating voters were pushed to vote Labour and not pulled.
This phenomenon was further evidenced by the notable shifts in votes towards parties like the Reform Party, Greens, and Liberal Democrats, indicating Labour was not the first choice for all anti-Conservative voters.
3: Labour Continued
One cannot compare the Labour victory of 2024 to that of the 1945 general election. Labour, in my opinion, unlike in 1945, failed at offering the electorate tough, bold, and new, political stances and clear policy proposals. The fear of alienating voters, it seems, was too great a risk for Labour, well aware of the general election losses it suffered in the past 14 years.
If one were to ask a person on the street what Labour stood for, they would shrug and mumble something about ‘not being Tory’, ‘fixing the NHS’ or ‘growing the economy’. That is a problem: voters do not know what Labour stands for.
It’s uncertain how, or if, the Labour government will improve the NHS, achieve Net Zero (an issue seldom mentioned during this election) or have economic growth. One is put under the impression that, because it’s a new government, these problems will get solved, right?
So far, Labour has talked the talk, and the media has given them their honeymoon treatment. But, I am dubious as to how Labour, after years in opposition, will finally walk the walk, and provide results with their hope.
4: Liberal Democrats
With 72 seats (gaining 64), the party performed better than one might have expected considering its record over the last decade.
Because of their controversial and unpopular decision to join a coalition with the conservatives in 2010, the Liberal Democrats were written off politically, they were given a chance at co-governing and people were bitter over it.
However, the Liberal Democrats experienced rehabilitation from 2022 onwards. Traditionally seen as a third-choice party, they won conservative constituencies in several by-elections over those two years.
After the ‘party-gate’ scandal, for example, the Liberal Democrats, in typical fashion, piggy-backed off conservatism by adopting appealing stances from both ends of the political spectrum.
Of all the party leaders, Ed Davey campaigned the hardest and most memorable. The lake-falling, bungee-jumping and rollercoaster-riding leaders of the Liberal Democrats helped bring attention to their party and away from the Conservatives and Labour.
Some doubts about their campaign tactics were raised, as one could argue they were immature, silly and not approaching issues seriously enough. Regardless, they gained impressive results few had hoped for.
One wonders how the Liberal Democrats will implement their seventy-plus seats in the House of Commons. How successful will they be with policies? What will their relationship be with the Conservatives and Labour government? All of these questions are important in determining whether they maintain their place in politics come the next general election.
5 – Reform UK
As a party in their first general election, Reform performed well, gaining 5 seats. This is a remarkable feat when compared to other, well-established small parties such as the Greens.
The right-wing party is reactionary: a mix of frustrated ex-conservative supporters and a new brand of right-wing populism that is much like the Republican Party in the US.
Fiercely opposing immigration and cancel culture, whilst promoting traditional values, masculinity and British nationalism, it is ironic the party is called Reform. They do not want to reform, only regress.
If anything, this election conveys that the conservative party has been defeated, conservatism as an ideology survived. 4 million votes for a right-wing populist party has highlighted this fact.
This is also a warning for the Conservative party: a new right-wing ideology may loom over politics if the conservative party does not have the initiative to re-invent itself and appeal to Reform voters if that is possible.
6: Scottish National Party
Possible funding fraud in 2023 resulted in the arrests of SNP first minister Nicola Sturgeon and Treasurer Collin Beattie. However guilty or innocent one may think the SNP is, the investigation shook the party and uprooted it indefinitely.
The investigation pressured Sturgeon, a popular leader of nearly 9 years, to resign, along with her husband and SNP CEO Peter Murrel. Party membership declined as well.
The Yousaf government that followed crumbled as did their coalition with the Scottish Greens. Overall, the SNP was on a downward slope heading into the general election, with John Swinney as First Minister.
Ultimately, the SNP would lose 39 seats (keeping 9), with Labour winning much of Scotland’s central belt- something paramount to the SNP.
It is remarkable that the SNP, having politically dominated Scotland and was once seen as an obstacle to a Labour win in Scotland, fell in popularity so quickly.
This election also highlights an opposition to independence. The SNP claimed the next general election would be a proto-independence referendum. The poor results for the SNP speak for themselves.
7: Notes
The BBC’s 2024 general election results are where much of my data has been sourced. I would recommend their result data as it is easy to comprehend and insightful.
For further reading, the articles on Labour, SNP and Conservative provide an adequate background on the parties leading to this general election.
Featured Image Credit: Pexels Free Photos.
I am a third-year Politics and Journalism Studies student at the University of Stirling (2022-) and a writer and sub-editor for the Brig for over a year (Nov. 2023-), focusing mainly on political topics.
