As two billion people prepare to vote this year, will democracy deliver against a backdrop of populism and autocracy?
This year represents a critical point in geopolitics. The Israel-Hamas conflict dominates the Gaza region, the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues, and tensions are rising between Venezuela and Guyana.
Indian general election
Commonly referred to as the most populated democracy, India will elect all 543 members of the Lok Sabha (House of the People) at some point before June, using First-Past-The-Post.
PM Modi leads the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), known for its right-wing policies, namely workers’ rights dissolution and Hindu nationalism.
The BJP has presided over democratic backsliding in India, with the Democracy Index ranking the country progressively lower since 2014, improving only marginally since 2020.
Current polling suggests that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, led by the BJP, will win its third consecutive term.
India’s economy has quickly developed in recent years, overtaking the UK as the fifth-largest in 2022.
This, paired with its definitive geopolitical stances (allyship of Israel and neutrality toward Ukraine) reinforces the importance of this election.
US general elections
All 435 House Representatives, a third of the Senate, and the President are up for election this November.
For the presidential election, party members in each state will first attend exclusive small ballots (primaries) or meetings (caucuses) to elect their preferred candidate.
Already, Iowan Republicans have chosen Donald Trump as their preferred candidate, with him receiving just over half of the vote.
The next primary will take place in New Hampshire later this month, with both parties nominating their preferred candidate.
Polling suggests that the election will be an even match, with the most likely contest to be between incumbent President Biden and ex-President Trump, despite attempts by two states, Colorado and Maine, to remove him from the primary ballot.
A Supreme Court case in February will decide whether these ballot removals are constitutional under the 14th Amendment, which bars candidates that have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” from holding democratic office.
Since Trump has not been officially charged with insurrection, and the Court is majority conservative, it is likely to be struck down.
The US Presidential Election is crucial, as it remains a key global player in international politics. Its support for Israel remains steadfast, leading to South African lawyers preparing a joint prosecution case for the US and UK’s “complicity in war crimes”.
Furthermore, US support for Ukraine is slipping, as Republicans question the feasibility of sending packages of support indefinitely. Trump has avoided committing to sending aid to Ukraine, instead saying that he’d end the war in “24 hours”.
UK general election
While this could technically take place next January, PM Rishi Sunak has said that his “working assumption” is that it will be conducted in the latter half of this year.
Many analysts believe this to be a nod to a November election, neatly coinciding with the US elections.
All 650 Commons seats are up for election using the First-Past-The-Post system. Boundary revisions have lost Scotland, the North-West, and North-East two seats each, while the South-East and South-West have gained several between them.
The BBC suggested that this may help the Conservatives, although the process of redrawing boundaries is fully independent.
An extensive poll by YouGov suggested that 2024 could mirror Blair’s 1997 victory, with Labour winning 385 seats, and the Conservatives retaining just 169.
This would also see eleven cabinet ministers lose their seats, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt among them.
With public services in disarray and house prices at record levels, this vital election will largely focus on domestic policy.
Labour has significantly reformed its foreign policy position since the pacifism of Corbyn’s tenure, as it now shares in most of the views of the Conservatives with regard to Ukraine, Israel, NATO, and the UK’s nuclear programme.
Whilst some shadow ministers resigned in calls for a ceasefire, an incoming Labour Government would likely maintain the newfound call for a “sustainable ceasefire”.
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